If you want to understand collapse, learn about energy. Especially renewable energy. One of the hottest old ladies on renewable energy to read is Gail Tverberg
. I think gramps on Collapse Chronicles has a recent interview with her. I'd watch it but I can't listen to gramps much more than I can listen Zizek. Vaclav Smil
is a phsysics anal-yst who's very strong on renewables and agriculture. Back in 2011 he published this chart
. His book called Energy and Civilization is ever slightly terribly more informative than it is tedious. Smil is a complete asshole, but I guess you have to be to crunch numbers the way he does. Ozzie Zehner
wrote a book in 2012 called Green Illusions
, a very excellent. Ozzie was a green architect who very quickly figured out how much bullcrap green energy is. I remember one story about how a manufacturer of plastic bags cut down five acres of forest to install solar panels for their operation. David MacKay
has a youtube video from around 2012 about the incredibly huge eco footprint renewables have. I remember one poignant line about how South Korea doesn't have enough land to go green. He's another anal-yst, but very likeable.
All the world's biggest lies involve 2 things, money and energy, if you're normal ( unlike me ) you may think all the world's biggest lies involve money and happiness.
Private banking took over public credit over 100 years ago in 1913 in collusion with oil, trains and banks. This act started the boom-bust-war cycle of the last 100 years. All war is about money. About 20 years after we learned to fly, we learned how to blow up the planet. That energy could have saved life on this planet.
Many skulkers on this sub were once Peak Oilers, ( Gail Tverberg ) as with all predictions timing is everything. Ask my wife. Others await financial collapse, likely fans of Occupy Wall Street. Those were heady days. None of those things changed, they just all got scrambled by fracking and deep sea extracttion tech. Something I was surprised to learn is that there's a 3,000 mile seamless pipeline in nothern Asia somewhere.
Everything is still in play. From your sex life to nuclear war, it's all still happening. This year, the 2 biggest lies were on Wall Street, beyond the usual bitcoin laundering. The WeWork IPO was backed by big Saudi bucks. And, as you may well rightly guess, so was the ARMACO IPO. The Saudis want a couple trillion for 17% of their action, although no one knows exactly what that action is. As soon as loans depended on reserves, everybody and their cousin started exagerrating reserves back in the early 80s or late 70s.
From as near as I can tell, we get financial crash first ( or last ), we get cumulative, unstoppable, irreversible and worse than expected food and water shortages between 2023 - 2027. This is because of polar mega blobs of hot and cold breaking off from the north pole and fucking up our traditional breadbaskets. This means the big farms will go down, and if you don't know how to handle food, you'll die. Learn to grow sprouts, mushrooms etcetera. Some guy claims he can live off hydro-greens and dumpster diving. That's fine but urban water shortages will tend to negate success in some areas.
Your first concern is safe water. A lot of food can be stored and grown, but not without water. If you got the means, get the old ones into water, and minimal food storage. Don't store food where there will be no water. Have a great day guys. Tonight is drinking night, and the old lady's got the day off.
I’ve decided to document my journey with an experiment in crypto investing that involves creating a Crypto Index Fund of sorts.
With a nod and hat tip to Brett McLain (http://blog.mclain.ca/31-crypto-currencies-week-1/
) who was the inspiration for this experiment, as he enters week 14 of his own.
Where my experiment differs is in the number of cryptos selected, as well as the style of selection. Brett went with the Top 30 (actually he used 31 in the end) by Market Cap.
For my experiment, I shall be selecting 35 cryptos that I’ve hand selected.
First, let’s get the rules set. The Rules
Why Am I Doing This Experiment?
- 35 cryptocurrencies.
- $350 total.
- $10 of each, exactly. So coins like Bitcoin that are worth considerably more than $10, will be piece bought.
- All bought on same day. Price paid is whatever price they were going for that day.
- Weekly update, with analysis of how things are going.
- Similar to the other $10 in x cryptos experiments, only this is my 35 specially chosen cryptos, not the top 35 by market cap.
- Mix of established coins, along with some very new projects and hedges against other projects (for example, BTC & BCH).
- All cryptos were bought on Tuesday 21st November.
- No more buying after the first day.
- No rebalancing or selling.
- Holding for 1 year.
Primarily, this is a thought experiment for me. It’s also a method that I hope proves whether a diversified portfolio is more effective in the long run than holding a single (or few) cryptos.
I have longterm holds in a numbers of coins over a long period of time. This small-scale thought experiment is separate to that.
And why do I think an “crypto index fund” is such a good idea? This: https://imgur.com/aIxx3zu
That’s a picture of the whole crypto market cap over the last year. It’s rising constantly (especially in the last few months), and is only set to grow more (and more rapidly).
So an index fund that tracks a large segment of the market should be a really good thing. My profit will rise as the overall crypto market cap rises. That’s what this experiment is all about.
And if it isn’t a good thing, we will see. The Cryptos
Here are the cryptocurrencies I selected (listed by price):
|Foo ||Bar |
|Bitcoin ||(BTC) |
|Bitcoin Cash ||(BCH) |
|Dash ||(DASH) |
|Ethereum ||(ETH) |
|Zcash ||(ZEC) |
|Monero ||(XMR) |
|Litecoin ||(LTC) |
|NEO ||(NEO) |
|Gas ||(GAS) |
|Qtum ||(QTUM) |
|Lisk ||(LSK) |
|OmiseGO ||(OMG) |
|Waves ||(WAVES) |
|Walton ||(WTC) |
|Metal ||(MTL) |
|Vertcoin ||(VTC) |
|Salt ||(SALT) |
|Metaverse ETP ||(ETP) |
|Neblio ||(NEBL) |
|Ark ||(ARK) |
|Komodo ||(KMD) |
|EOS ||(EOS) |
|Modum ||(MOD) |
|AdEx ||(ADX) |
|Kyber Network ||(KNC) |
|PowerLedger ||(POWR) |
|iExec RLC ||(RLC) |
|Civic ||(CVC) |
|Obsidian ||(ODN) |
|Rise ||(RISE) |
|VeChain ||(VEN) |
|Ripple ||(XRP) |
|Chainlink ||(LINK) |
|Ripio ||(RCN) |
|Request Network ||(REQ) |
A lot of research and thought went into selecting these 35. I don’t want to get into too much detail about why I chose individual cryptos (although that might come later).
First, I will answer the two most macro of questions first:
This is pretty simple. I wanted a large enough amount that would justify an “index fund” without being unwieldy. As this isn’t a traditional index fund, it would be ridiculously complex to buy 100s of cryptos individually and then be able to store them somewhere.
I think 35 is a good number that allows for diversification and balance, without being too complex and unwieldly.
Whether all of these 35 cryptos will turn out to be successful (and I define success as giving me at least a 1.5x ROI in a year), will be an interesting part of the experiment.
I chose these 35 for specific reasons individually and I made sure to choose a number of project types - straight up currencies, platforms, dApps, protocols, etc.
In this index fund, there will be small total supply coins, large total supply coins, large market cap coins, small market cap coins, old projects, new projects and everything in between.
But all of them are good projects, I believe. Time will tell and I invite questions and discussion about the cryptos themselves in the comments.
Based on their Market Cap rankings, I put the 35 cryptos into a number of types that I’ll explain a bit here:
- The Big Boys
- The Second Tier
- Emerging Upstarts
The cryptos in The Big Boys section are pretty obvious. The established and time-tested players like Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dash fit here.
In the Second Tier we have the potential future stars. Cryptos like NEO, OmiseGO and Lisk fit comfortably here.
Whilst The Emerging Upstarts are filled with newer projects that are super solid, for example: Walton Chain, PowerLedger and Chainlink.
By selecting older and newer projects in this “crypto index fund” I’m hoping to leverage both money coming into the established/known cryptos, as well as potentially making bigger market cap jumps with some of the new projects that have far to run. Potential Issues With the Experiment
Some obvious issues with my method became apparent pretty quickly:
- Firstly, certain cryptos will naturally have an advantage (at least early on), if they were down that day compared to their usual average.
Some coins were near all-time-highs, which will naturally skew the experiment a little and make it a little harder for them to succeed…at least in the early stages of the experiment. For example, Bitcoin happened to be very near its ATH when I bought it for the experiment. NEO and AdEx were also very near their tops.
- The natural volatility of Bitcoin meant that I wasn’t able to hit exactly on $10 for each, and some of the values are therefore a little off-kilter because of that. I did the best I could.
- Due to the relatively small amounts involved, I probably won’t be taking these off the exchanges I bought them on (transaction fees). Leaving on exchanges isn’t ideal (for obvious reasons), but this experiment is more about the thought experiment for me. My large holdings are in cold storage.
I bought these cryptos on Tuesday 21st November. I will, therefore, be doing a weekly update every Tuesday where I chart the experiment’s progress.
I'll be including charts/graphs in future updates, so that we can see a visual representation of what's going on.
I’ll be making a site to chronicle this experiment and give it a home.
Let me know what you think of my plan - I’m open to constructive criticism and any thoughts you might have. Sources and Helpful Resources
Here’s some of the many resources I consulted for this project: https://digitalassetdbtest.azurewebsites.net/ http://aenigma.capital/Leveraging-the-Cryptoeconomic-Machine.pdf https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/portfolio/ https://coinmarketcap.com/ https://www.coingecko.com/en https://coincheckup.com/
Feel free to follow me here for more regular updates: https://twitter.com/cryptoindexfund
It's the birth of a new era. The once unrivaled and highly notorious ocean of Bitcoin traders and large stake holders known as WhaleClub has finally met it's match. There's a new kid in town, and this one's a force to be reckoned with. Welcome in the newest crew in the game, StakePool.
Let's not waste time on recapping the events leading up to the final breaking of WC (do your own research - hint
- if you enjoy the dramatics.) This is the StakePool Journal, so in keeping with the obvious, we're here to chronicle all things StakePool. We'll start from the beginning.
StakePool is the bountiful flourishing brain-child conceived by Flibbr, the original creator and admin of WC, Swapman, and Fyrstikken (both former moderators at WC.) The split between the two groups, and the subsequent birth of StakePool began shortly after the new year. The concept was simple to begin: an open server, separate rooms for price action and sideways chatter, and very few rules. The number one principle that made StakePool stand out from other groups was a simple policy of no kicking, no banning. Traders from all walks of life are welcome to join StakePool, and there are no uppity laws to keep anyone out. Upon connecting to the TeamSpeak3 server, voice permissions are already provided. To put it briefly, if you're being obnoxious, you'll get muted. When you're ready to act like a person, your talk power will be restored. Very simple.
Another way StakePool keeps with the tradition of freedom is by eliminating unnecessary status markers that have lead to superfluous power struggles in prior groups. Three admins, a few moderators to aid in helping users and running a smooth ship if no admins are present, and just about a shitload of wayward icons, or "server groups," to allow everyone all of the spirited and semi-offensive bling they desire. Some examples include "unicorn," "420," "commie," "illuminati," "REKT," and "Ashdrake." What can you say, traders have never been the most PC-friendly people around. Where other open-groups shy away from the potentially off-color, StakePool embraces this as a freedom of expression. And who doesn't love a little debauchery?
Speaking of which, StakePool users tend to have a propensity for rektless fun. Our greatest example being a long-time member of many Bitcoin related platforms, the notorious Adam Guerbuez. It's hard not to know this guy. He's the target of constant social-media blasted accusations, of which he is thus-far completely innocent (in the bitcoin scene, of course.) Love him or hate him (though we definitely love him,) he is one hell of a fun guy to have around to get the degenerates among us rallying for bitcoin rain, socialized betting, and his latest project of 8-hour live-broadcast trading competitions.
But Adam isn't the only one spicing things up in Stakepool. Since the official first week, Stakepool devs have offered an open-sourced raffle,
allowing for three lucky winners to rake in some profits entirely based off of the OKC weekly settlement price combined with a random number generator and the transaction order as it appears on the blockchain. Check out this code
for the specifics on the community-conceived randomization process. Each ticket costs .01btc, and the winners split the raffles earnings for each week by 50% for 1st place, 35% for 2nd place, and 15% for 3rd place. All past results can be found linked on the raffle page.
Now that's an incredible achievement of StakePool in the short few weeks since it's opening: there are pages? Yeah,
the StakePool site
has made unbelievable headway with it's multitude of resources so cleanly compiled under one brand. You can check out Flibbr's chart updates in real-time, or you can look at any chart you like on the charts page,
where our briliant dev forked the source code from the late Coinorama, and added features formerly unprovided by the original site, as well as improvements to the UI. FacesOfREKT
has also been rebranded under the StakePool facility links. Keep in mind, this creation has only just begun. You can expect many more big things to come.
StakePool users are welcomed and encouraged to submit content to add to the compilation of StakePool resources. To get involved, connect to the TeamSpeak3 server,
or the various Telegram groups.
Find out more information here
on the principles under which StakePool was founded, or donate and receive the Financial Supporters swag on the TeamSpeak server. All donations go directly to the server fund. All affiliate links associated with StakePool are accounts created under the StakePool name, so all affiliate proceeds will also go directly to the server fund. The fund is used to upgrade servers as needed, and to create more fun festivities for users to partake in.
Stay tuned for regular updates on all things StakePool! Special shoutout to user Cloud for making it rain tonight!
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